Crestone Weather Center
Crestone, Colorado

 

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Public Information Statement

 

NWS Forecasts for our area are often incorrect for when snow is forecasted, here's why
(posted by Keno on Tuesday, March 26, at 600 am)

 

The snowstorm that hit our area has now ended and moved off to the east of here. It was an interesting storm in many way, mainly since the NWS got the forecast wrong for our area, thanks to an old and incorrect system that our government has had in place for our area for decades now. The problem is, when it comes to forecasting, the NWS must follow the old guidelines set up by the government, even if they know a incorrect forecast might occur. During the snow season, this happens often. The greater Crestone area is one of only two areas in Colorado affected by this problem (San Luis, south of here, is the other, since our two areas are the only towns in Colorado that are in the foothills on the west side of the San de Cristo mountains). Since I have enough experience in meteorology and I been working for them as a volunteer for a few decades, they allow me to change our forecast while being allowed to claim it's still a NWS forecast.

 

So, where exactly is the problem? Those guidelines noted above, state that the forecast for this area only applies for over 8,500 feet, and the greater Crestone area averages 8,100 feet. Because of that, our entire location is placed in the official forecast for the San Luis Valley, which, other than for the Grants and areas off T Road, is not where most of us live or are located. Even the NWS, officially lists our weather station as being in the foothills of the San del Cristo mountains, and of course, it is. The weather we see here in the foothills isn't the same as the weather that the valley sees whenever precipitation falls, or when the winds blow. But the NWS's satellite office in Pueblo (our local office), isn't allowed to officially change the forecast location maps set by the government, and what they issue is really only for the valley. For Sunday's storm, they issued 1 to 8 inches of snow to fall, and didn't issue any warnings or advisories for our area under 8,500 feet. But because I have permission to do so (I would do it anyway, if I didn't), I knew we would see more than just an inch - in all areas, including the Grants, and noted that in my  forecast before the storm hit, calling for up to a foot of snow in all of the foothills, and having all areas above 8,000 feet, included in the Winter Storm Warning area. While I also knew that the Grants (and T Road) should have at the least had a Winter Weather Adversary issued, I will only alter weather bulletins, but I don't issue them, since I don't have permission to do so. That's the NWS's job, but by going by the guidelines they must follow, they still could have and should have issued a weather warning for the Grants and all other locations in our greater area.

 

 

 

 

 


 




 

 

 

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